Coburn, Carson in dead heat

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The latest poll numbers from Wilson Research in the Oklahoma U.S. Senate race shows conservative Republican Tom Coburn 2 points behind liberal Democrat Brad Carson. It appears that Carson's ad campaign trying to redefine himself as a conservative has had some impact. All the cross-tabs are available in this PDF file.

The overall numbers: Coburn at 37%, Carson at 39%, Bilyeu at 6%, and 19% undecided. Margin of error is +/- 4.4%. From last week, that's a 5% drop for Coburn, a 3% gain for Carson, a 2% gain for Undecided, and a 1% gain for Bilyeu.

Some interesting internals:

  • The more educated, the more likely to support Coburn -- Coburn leads 45-36 among those with a post-graduate education, 43-34 among college graduates, 39-37 among those with some college, but trails 28-45 among those with a high school graduation or less.

  • Coburn only leads 49-26 among self-described conservatives.

  • Coburn only leads 55-24 among Bush supporters, 56-23 among Republicans.

  • Coburn leads in four of the five congressional districts -- the exception is CD 2, where he trails 25-58.

  • Coburn leads in only one age group -- 25-34, where he leads 55-27.

  • Marriage amendment supporters are almost evenly split, favoring Coburn 42-38.

The poll also covers the presidential race (Bush leads 59-29) and five of the state questions.

UPDATE: Charles of Dustbury teases a few more interesting details from the data.

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Brad Carson has pulled even with Tom Coburn in the race for the Senate seat being vacated by Don Nickles. A poll of "500 likely Oklahoma voters" shows Carson at... Read More

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This page contains a single entry by Michael Bates published on September 14, 2004 1:45 AM.

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