That OSU economic paper

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Tulsa Mayor Bill LaFortune has mentioned this paper time and time again, and here it is on the web: the 2006 Oklahoma Economic Outlook for the Tulsa MSA, by Ed Price, Associate Professor of Economics.

The paper states that the Tulsa metro area is "poised to regain much of what it has lost and to have a significant, positive impact on the state's economy." It projects a 2.9% growth of the gross metropolitan output in real terms, the "best real growth in a decade." Scattered throughout the three pages of text are specific percentages for projected growth for different sectors of the metro area economy.

What isn't there is any statement of the basis for the projected 2006 numbers, what forces are at work in the Tulsa metro area or the broader national and global economy to produce a specific level of job growth here. Assumptions had to be made to generate these numbers, but the reader is not given the opportunity to examine and evaluate those assumptions.

This was very interesting: The last page of the report shows historic employment data overall and in various categories, with real numbers from 1999 through 2004, an estimate for 2005, and a projection for 2006. Note the "Information" category -- between 2001 and 2004 information technology employment in the Tulsa metro area dropped by 23%, and is nowhere near recovering. Employment in Natural Resources and Mining, which I assume would include the oil industry, is projected to continue to drop, although not as steeply.

Something to keep in mind, as you consider this report in light of local politics: The report covers the entire Tulsa MSA, which includes all of Tulsa County, not just the City of Tulsa, plus Creek, Okmulgee, Osage, Pawnee, Rogers, and Wagoner Counties.

You'll find links to the economic outlook for the entire state and the OKC metro area here.


Joseph Wallis said:

Its quite simple, everyone is going to become a real estate agent!

Seriously though, it seems like everyone I meet is a real estate agent. I really dont understand how so many people can be trying to sell houses when this area is so depressed.

Maybe the OSU study is based on hopes and dreams for all of Kanbar's purchases. Or maybe there is a bit of "it can't get any worse than this" thrown into the statistics. In stats they will tell you that a trending number will have a greater chance to go higher from its lows than go lower. Maybe the OSU paper is just a gamble of percentages?

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This page contains a single entry by Michael Bates published on January 19, 2006 6:09 PM.

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