Where'd the polls go?

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I've become accustomed to checking RealClearPolitics every day for the latest polling numbers for key early primary states, and as a Fred Thompson supporter, I was anxious to see the impact of his stellar performance at last Thursday night's Fox News debate on the South Carolina polling numbers.

All other signs say that it made a difference. The campaign met and far exceeded its fundraising goal to pay for TV, radio, and voter contact efforts in South Carolina. (They've upped the goal twice and need $75,000 to meet that third goal of $1,000,000 raised in a week.) There are reports of standing-room-only crowds and people being turned away from his campaign appearances. Hundreds of supporters have come to the state on their own dime to volunteer for Fred.

But we haven't seen the polls change because there hasn't been any polling in South Carolina since the January 10 debate. Not a single poll. Michigan has had six polling firms -- three national and three in-state -- in the field with surveys since January 10. Florida, whose primary is still two weeks away, has had two polls in the field since Thursday.

Because South Carolina is a winner-take-all primary by congressional district, perceptions of a candidate's chances will have an impact on voter decisions. Many voters will limit their decision to those candidates who are within striking distance of first place, to have a chance at impacting who receives the state's delegates. Polls showing a post-debate Thompson surge would help persuade voters who like him on the issues that he has a chance of winning.

Is there really no polling going on in South Carolina? Are poll results being withheld for some reason? Or is there some truth to Scott Ott's latest satirical news story?

UPDATE: As a couple of commenters note, Rasmussen has new numbers for South Carolina showing Fred Thompson gaining and Mike Huckabee falling back, both in a virtual tie for second with Mitt Romney and far behind John McCain.

Also, Survey USA has polled Oklahoma about our February 5 primary. Click the links to see the Republican results and the Democratic results, including crosstabs. A couple of things stand out -- the Thompson gender gap, softness of Huckabee's support, and the difference in Huckabee's support between western and eastern Oklahoma. (Hat tip: The McCarville Report.)

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3 Comments

RecycleMichael said:

Rasmussen shows South Carolina polling results from January 13th...

South Carolina Rasmussen Jan. 13

Clinton 33%
Obama 38%
Edwards 17%


Guliani 5%
McCain 28%
Romney 17%
Thompson 16%
Huckabee 19%

sbtulsa Author Profile Page said:

I'll tell you my thought on Fred. After decades of people campaigning furiously for way to long before the election, I am refreshed by Thompson's demeanor. We don't need a man or wman who's desparate to get the office. We need one who can govern as he or she is lead by principal or God almighty. If they get voted out after one term so be it. That would be leadership. Unfortunately, he or she might be a majority of one and none of the common sense that type of person woud bring to washington would see the light of day once it got to capital hill.

Alas, I'm still voting for fred.

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This page contains a single entry by Michael Bates published on January 14, 2008 12:22 PM.

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