RealClearPolitics - HorseRaceBlog - Some Reflections on Polling in the Primaries

RealClearPolitics - HorseRaceBlog - Some Reflections on Polling in the Primaries

Primary polling is so volatile because the most reliable predictor of uninformed voter behavior -- party affiliation -- is out of play: "If you think about all of the attention political junkies have paid to this race since last January - it is almost unbelievable to think that voters would not have decided months ago. But, if we put ourselves in the shoes of the average voters, and try to recreate their thought processes - it makes a lot of sense. Their partisanship cannot serve as a quick, easy guide. Thus, they have to take a good, long look at the candidates as people. Given their typical inattention to politics, the time when this happens is the last week or so."