Politics: October 2008 Archives

iowahawk: Balls and Urns

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iowahawk: Balls and Urns

A humorous but educational look at the mathematics of randomly-sampled polls -- confidence intervals and margins of error -- and the non-quantifiable errors that have nothing to do with sampling: "What if you have to rely on the balls to report their own color, and some unknown number are probably lying to you? What if you have outsourced the urn-ball counting to part-time temp balls, most of whom happen to be blue? What if the balls inside the urn are listening to you counting out there, and it affects whether they want to be counted, and/or which color they want to be?... [S]o-called scientific "sampling error" is completely meaningless, because it is utterly overwhelmed by unmeasurable non-sampling error. Under these circumstances "margin of error" is a fantasy, a numeric fiction masquerading as a pseudo-scientific fact."

Anatomy of a Congressional Leadership Race [The Dirksen Congressional Center]

How Bob Michel (R-IL) beat Guy Vander Jagt (R-MI) to become House Minority Leader in 1982.

Conservative Canon « Marty Andrade

A collection of links to lists of must-read books on political philosophy, economics, culture, etc.

Fannie Mayhem: A History - WSJ.com

Articles and editorials from the Wall Street Journal. As early as 2002, WSJ was calling attention to problems with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

Hot Air: Another confirmation that enforcement works

Commenter "rockmom" says that illegal labor made this crisis possible, by driving down wages, facilitating overbuilding, and creating a market for no-documentation mortgages.

What They Said About Fan and Fred - WSJ.com

From the 2005 hearings on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, Barney Frank bravely asks the heads of those companies if they feel they "have been substantially under-regulated." Plus quotes from congressmen and senators from 2003, 2004, and 2005 hearings on problems with the Government Supported Enterprises. (Via The Corner.)

Strategery Capital Management LLC

"Strategery is a unique hedge fund. It is the largest in the world, with expected initial capital of $700 billion. It has a free and unlimited credit line should it need more. It has no fixed mandate, though it is expected to initially focus on mortgage-backed securities. And it is the only fund backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government. Strategery is a way for you to be more patriotic. Supporting this fund is an American duty. Criticizing this fund or any of its associated legislation or regulations may be subject to civil and criminal penalties."