Kerry catching up in Oklahoma?


The new KWTV Wilson Research poll is out, and it shows that the Presidential race in Oklahoma has narrowed from 30 points to 12 in just one week, while in the Senate race, Carson's lead over Coburn remains at 2 points.

18 points is a lot of movement for one week and that got me to dig a little further. There's a question asking what political label the respondent would give to himself -- liberal, moderate, or conservative, and if liberal or conserative, whether very or somewhat. The previous two weeks, the liberal number was at 12%; this week it's at 17%. The previous two weeks, the conservative percentage was 48% then 50%; this week it's 44%. What's more, the very conservative number had been at 23% and 24%, then dropped this week to 18%. (Moderate numbers stayed about the same all three weeks -- 34, 33, 31.)

Either we had a seismic shift in Oklahoma politics, with the whole political spectrum shifting six points to the left, or more likely, this poll is an outlier. When you take a random sample, the results most of the time will be representative of the larger population, within the margin of error, but there's always a chance (about 1 in 20) that you will get unlucky and pick an utterly unrepresentative sample. If that is the case with this week's Wilson poll, and in fact the real presidential numbers are closer to last week's, it makes you wonder what the real Coburn-Carson numbers are, if a liberal-skewed sample has them nearly tied.

About this Entry

This page contains a single entry by Michael Bates published on October 12, 2004 11:37 AM.

Council committee agenda: EDC, appointments, noise nuisance, 15th & Utica zoning was the previous entry in this blog.

Some perspective on the Chamber and economic development is the next entry in this blog.

Find recent content on the main index or look in the archives to find all content.



Subscribe to feed Subscribe to this blog's feed:
[What is this?]