Mazzei leads tight Governor poll

Former State Sen. Mike Mazzei narrowly leads the race for the Republican nomination for Governor of Oklahoma in a new poll commissioned by NonDoc. The top three candidates, Mike Mazzei, Gentner Drummond, and Chip Keating, are within one percentage point of each other. Charles McCall in 4th place is less than 3 points behind 1st place.

1. Mike Mazzei, 22.10%
2. Gentner Drummond, 21.66%
3. Chip Keating, 21.44%
4. Charles McCall, 18.38%
5. Jake Merrick, 7.21%
6. Kenneth Sturgell, 3.06%
7. Jennifer Domenico, 2.63%
8. Leisa Mitchell Haynes, 2.41%
9. Callup Anthony Taylor, 1.09%

The last previous public poll of the GOP Governor primary was released by CHS in early February, and it showed Drummond with more than double the support of his nearest challenger at 35% and McCall at 14%, Mazzei at 13%, and Keating at 13%, within a percentage point of each other. Merrick had 5% in that poll.

The poll will be used to determine who will qualify to participate in NonDoc's gubernatorial debate on Thursday, May 28, 2026. A 12% threshold is required to participate.

NonDoc wrote that they spent their own money on the poll in order to give them a fair basis to decide who made the cut, rather than basing the decision of four-month old polling numbers. "With no public gubernatorial polling since January, how would we know whether Merrick, Leisa Mitchell Haynes, Kenneth Sturgell, Jennifer Domenico or Callup Anthony Taylor had closed their gap with the top four candidates?" Merrick has intense and vocal support online, but that hasn't translated to a realistic chance of advancing to the runoff.

The debate will be held at Cameron University in Lawton and will be broadcast live on KSWO and C-SPAN and will be streamed on KSWO.com and CSPAN.org, starting at 5:45 p.m. on Thursday, May 28, 2026.

The poll also asked about the Republican primary for State Superintendent. Nearly half of those polled were undecided, but John Cox leads with 12.25%, followed by State Sen. Adam Pugh with 7.66%, but other candidates are not far behind. CHS also recently polled this race and found 61% undecided and all candidates in single digits, with John Cox at 9% and Adam Pugh at 8%. Six of the seven candidates will participate in the June 2 NonDoc debate.

RELATED: The 2026 1Q campaign contributions and expenditures reports showed the leading four candidates had raised over $4 million each. Jake Merrick had raised only $34,092.49. That's barely more than the $30,066.34 Merrick raised before the primary in his 2022 quest for a full term in the State Senate, a primary that he lost. (Merrick's campaign for Governor also reported another $13,873.83, in in-kind contributions, such as a month's use of an RV.)

For comparison, in 2018, grassroots favorite Dan Fisher had raised $223,885.68 by the end of the first quarter, $198,885.68 from individual contributions, and nearly half of that in Q1. Between the end of Q1 and the primary, Fisher raised another $95,425. Fisher's fundraising arguably showed momentum, but nevertheless Fisher finished 4th in the Republican primary with 8% of the vote. The 2nd and 3rd place candidates, Kevin Stitt and Todd Lamb, were so close in votes that either might have made the runoff had Fisher or a couple of other candidates with devoted followings (Gary Jones, Gary Richardson) dropped out.

For all of Fisher's fundraising and devoted online support, he managed only a poor fourth. What can Merrick expect with far worse fundraising, with barely more money than he had for a losing State Senate race?